The Yoon Suk-yeol administration's North Korea policy: background and implications

By Hyung-suk Kim | Former Vice Minister of Unification

1. Yoon's Way of Dealing with North Korea

In the first half of 2022, North Korea raised international concerns by resuming its nuclear activities along with a series of ballistic missile tests.

Against this backdrop, the Yoon Seok-yeol administration is determined to deal with North Korea in the following directions: First, it will respond firmly to North Korea's nuclear and missile programs but leave the door open for dialogue to resolve these issues.

Second, if North Korea stops developing nuclear weapons and switches to substantial denuclearization, it will work with the international community to devise “bold” plans to drastically boost North Korea's economy and the lives of North Korean people.

Third, it does not want North Korea to collapse while hoping that the two Koreas jointly enjoy prosperity.

Fourth, the era of appeasement is over. It is not South Korea's job to avoid North's provocations or conflicts. Fifth, humanitarian aid will be open at any time, regardless of political and military situations between the two Koreas.

In summary, the administration wants to take varying approaches to its North Korea policies by dealing resolutely and sternly with North Korea's military provocations on the one hand, and promoting dialogue and cooperation between the two Koreas to induce changes in North Korea's paths, including its denuclearization.

2. Historical Background and Evaluation of Yoon's North Korea Policy

The Moon administration's North Korea policy is not something new. It is a result of the lessons accumulated by many previous South Korean governments.

South Korea's efforts to achieve national unification have taken different names under different administrations in accordance with the circumstances of the times: "northward march for unification" under Rhee Syng-man, "nation-building before unification" under Park Chung-hee, "northern policy" under Roh Tae-woo, and "sunshine policy" under Kim Dae-jung.

The northward march policy reflected the special circumstances of the Korean War at the time, but it was not realistic.

Following the war, successive South Korean governments made efforts to achieve the ultimate unification of the two Koreas by promoting peaceful coexistence and mutual prosperity with expanded exchanges and cooperation between them while responding firmly to North Korea's provocations.

The Moon administration's North Korea policy has inherited the legacy of its predecessors. The only point that differentiates it from the others is that, unlike his predecessors, the new South Korean president wants to deal with North Korean issues in an international rather than bilateral framework.

He also pledges that he will uphold the principles and emphasizes the importance of "reciprocity" in engaging the North.

Although the administration began with the belief that its predecessor had failed to sufficiently prevent North Korea's deviant activities because it had focused on the “peculiarities” rather than the “universalities” of North Korea, it, too, has failed to present an unprecedentedly unique solution to these problems.

3. Changes in North Korea and How to Deal with Pyongyang

The Yoon administration hopes that North Korea changes in the following directions: first, it should not threaten peace on the Korean peninsula, Northeast Asia, and the rest of the world through complete denuclearization.

Second, it should become a normal nation that respects global standards and cooperates with the international community.

Third, it should become South Korea's partner in accomplishing a success transcending the miracle on the Han River and creating a miracle on the Korean peninsula through mutual cooperation between them.

If North Korea takes this path, inter-Korean relations will be upgraded to the same level as South Korea-China or South Korea-Vietnam relations, while inter-Korean liaison offices will be opened in Seoul and Pyongyang, thereby leading to the stage of inter-Korean "union," where the people of the two Koreas cooperate freely to fulfill each other's needs.

The Yoon administration's goal and mission are to bring about such changes in North Korea. To this end, it has to devise a precise plan to engage North Korea and implement it consistently throughout its term.

Presenting itself as a "weak victim," North Korea has been taking steps to become a "strong" nation with a "strategic status," while blatantly boasting that it could do anything to threaten others in order to defend itself.

This is Kim Jong-un's "obsession," inherited from his father.

How should we deal with North Korea? There are two possible options: a conciliatory approach of "give first and receive later" and a tough approach of "take first and give later."

In South Korea, liberal administrations often took conciliatory approaches, while conservative ones often adopted hard-line approaches.

Neither approach, however, produced the desired results. It is time now to use these two approaches appropriately, as the situation requires.

The Yoon Suk-yeol administration is launched at this critical moment.

Youn's "principled and open" approach makes it clear that there is no compensation for wrongdoings and promises that the door to dialogue and cooperation will open when North Korea moves in harmony with the international community.

South Korea should secure strong deterrence against North Korea's increasing military strengths, including its nuclear capabilities, so that Pyongyang will no longer dare to do anything with its military capabilities.

Furthermore, with a stern message against North Korea's possible provocations, South Korea has to obtain a wide range of military countermeasures in cooperation with the international community to make North Korean leaders aware that South Korea would not only respond fully to North Korea's nuclear attacks but also have a "balance of power" against the North.

With the dire realization that peace without a balance of arms is a submissive peace and that a nation without nuclear weapons has only two options—to surrender before or after a nuclear attack—South Korea has to maintain strong deterrence against North Korea's military threats. Dialogue and cooperation between the two Koreas will only be possible based on this.

Along with making efforts to denuclearize North Korea, South Korea also needs to actively engage in changing North Korea.

Taking advantage of North Korea's young leader and its "80–90 generation" that aspires for prosperity in their daily lives, South Korea needs to try a wide range of approaches across disciplines.

Through the division of roles between the government and the private sector, it is important for South Korea to actively create an environment in which the North can voluntarily come to the table for dialogue and cooperation.

If it is difficult for the two Koreas to cooperate directly, it would also be recommendable to utilize international organizations to this end.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was born in 1984 and studied in Switzerland when he was young. Consequently, apart from promoting a change in the ideology or system of his country, he may simply have a strong desire for the abundant life enjoyed by people in Western countries.

Since his inauguration as North Korea's supreme leader, Kim has made efforts to modernize the city of Pyongyang in the same way as Western cities by dressing up Future Scientist Street and opening the luxurious Munsu Water Park.

North Korea's "80-90 generation," which is roughly estimated to be 30% of its population, is familiar with a lifestyle in which individuals are responsible for their own lives through their experience in marketplaces, which grew following the collapse of the public distribution system in the mid-1990s.

They are considered to be a generation with high expectations for economic affluence.

When the leadership of the young leader, who has experienced life in the West and aspires for a strong, rich, and civilized country, and the new North Korean generation that aspires for economic affluence are combined, North Korea may take a path to openness just like China and Vietnam in the near future.

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